inflation rate forecast 結果共6筆

Discover the latest insights from Academia Sinica’s 2024 Taiwan Economic Forecast, highlighting a 6.56% GDP growth driven by global trade and tech demand. Learn about consumer trends, investment shifts, and future projections amidst uncertainties.

Explore the latest economic forecasts for Taiwan as the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research projects a GDP growth of 3.29% and a CPI increase to 2.13%. Amidst stable domestic demand and expanding exports, concerns over rising costs and geopolitical tensions loom. With cautious business investments and the global economic climate’s uncertainties, Taiwan navigates through challenges towards growth.

Nearly 46% of Taiwanese people expect a salary increase next year, according to a survey by Cathay Financial Holding Co. The survey also found that about 60% of respondents anticipate year-end bonuses ranging from one to three months’ salary, while 8.3% expect bonuses to exceed three months. However, 47.6% of those surveyed expect monthly wages to remain constant. The survey also revealed a conservative estimate for Taiwan’s 2024 economic growth, with an average expectation of 2.52%, contrasting with the more bullish 3.35% forecast by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics. Respondents predict an average inflation rate of 2.21%, with 55% believing it will exceed 2%, higher than the directorate’s projection of 1.64% for 2024. The survey was conducted from Dec. 1-7 and gathered 13,379 valid responses through email questionnaires.

Taiwan’s central bank has announced that it will maintain its interest rate for the third consecutive time in its quarterly board meeting. The decision was influenced by price changes and the need to balance stabilizing consumer prices with sustaining economic growth. Despite rising consumer prices due to natural disasters, the central bank remains optimistic and expects the inflation rate to drop below 2% next year. Forecasts for Taiwan’s GDP growth rate in 2023 are more positive, projected to reach 3.12%. This is supported by increasing private consumption, particularly in tourism and dining, as well as the central bank’s expectation of a global export increase to stimulate local investment and drive economic recovery. In contrast to the Federal Reserve in the U.S., Taiwan’s central bank stated that its monetary policy approach would be adjusted gradually based on the country’s economic conditions. Despite high housing prices, the central bank has decided against imposing stricter measures or withdrawing from market intervention to avoid further impact on the property market.

Taiwan’s 2023 GDP growth forecast has been lowered to 1.42%, the lowest in 14 years, due to weaker exports and private investment. Year-end bonuses for Taiwanese workers have also been affected, with the average amount shrinking to 1.08 months’ worth of salary, hitting a 10-year low. The financial industry leads in bonus payouts with an average of 1.83 months’ salary, followed by the semiconductor industry at 1.38 months. The healthcare services industry averages just 0.97 months of salary, while the accommodations and food services sector lags further behind at only 0.59 months. Despite the downward revision, the DGBAS remains optimistic for 2024, forecasting a GDP growth rate rebound to 3.35%. However, challenges such as the Ukraine-Russia war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and ongoing inflation may pose risks to the global economy. Looking ahead to 2024, local job banks predict pay increases in 47.5% of companies, with an average salary hike of 3.2%, slightly lower than in 2023. Experts caution that Taiwan’s economic recovery may not be as swift as hoped.

Asian-Pacific workers, including those in Taiwan, are expected to experience the highest global growth in real wage increases in 2024, according to recent data. India leads the way with a projected rise of 5.1%, while Taiwan contributes with a 2.5% increase. The ECA International’s Salary Trends Report indicates that real wages for Asian-Pacific workers will increase by 2.2% in 2024, more than double the global average of 1%. Taiwan ranks sixth in the real salary forecast growth rate in the Asia-Pacific region, surpassing Macau, Malaysia, the Philippines, Cambodia, and South Korea. Vietnam and Thailand are expected to see real wage surges of 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, while Singapore is projected to have modest growth of 0.5%. The region’s advantage of lower inflation rates compared to the rest of the world contributes to these increases. Greater China locations, excluding Hong Kong, are expected to be among the top ten globally in terms of real wage increases in 2024.